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Posted on: August 7, 2010 12:37 pm

Edited on: August 9, 2010 3:01 pm

Self Loathing - AFC North Preview

It’s not easy being a fan. Sometimes you need blind faith to get you through a rough patch. You get that feeling in your gut that you know you are wrong but you still keep shouting at the top of your lungs that your favorite team is going to win it all.

That’s not the worst.

The worst is when you can’t convince yourself to believe that your team can bring home the hardware.

Don’t get me wrong, I have faith and still believe there is a possibility, just not enough of one for me to change my mind.

Here it is…

I’m a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, but the Cincinnati Bengals will win the AFC North.

Let the self hatred do the healing, it might be all I have left after the 2010 season.

I’m going to start my breakdown with an easier pill to swallow.

Let’s talk a little Cleveland football.

The Browns are a team on the rise that might have the great fortune of timing going for them in about 2 or 3 seasons as the rest of the division will look to rebuild at key positions. Cleveland has started to build the offensive line with youth and talent to go along with a core of young promising players at nearly every position in the offensive weaponry. A pair of wide receivers with a great deal of upside in Massaquoi and Robiskie that will have a chance to develop with their future leader Colt McCoy and a possible breakout runner in Montario Hardesty give the Browns an opportunity to be strong in the offense within 3 years. The problem that Cleveland faces going into this season is that none of these factors will aid them in making a run that would get them to above 8-8. With a defense that is better suited personnel wise for a 4-3 than a 3-4 and a coach that I have zero faith in the Browns will struggle to put together back to back winning games.

Here’s my take on the Browns schedule,

@Tampa Bay – L

Kansas City – W

@Baltimore – L

Cincinnati – L

Atlanta – L

@Pittsburgh – L

@New Orleans – L

New England – L

New York Jets – L

@Jacksonville – L

Carolina – W

@Miami – L

@Buffalo – W

@Cincinnati – L

Baltimore – L

Pittsburgh – L

Cleveland is improving but a tough schedule means they will not improve their winning percentage. The combination of a defense that struggles to get off the field and a starting quarterback that likes to give the ball away in Jake Delhoume will earn the Browns a 3-13 record.

Cleveland will finish last in the AFC North.

The Ravens looked to be primed for a Super bowl run with the addition of Anquan Boldin to an offense that was in need of a wide receiver to take pressure off of an incredible running attack.

The problems that I have with the Ravens are on the defensive side of the ball.

Losing starting cornerback Domonique Foxworth puts another question mark on a unit that has too many to begin with. The front 7 is not the mammoth man crushing machine that it was 2 seasons ago and the depth is not there to rest the aging players throughout the season and still have the defense operating at a high level. If Ed Reed has problems returning at 100%, or if he continues to toy with the idea of not wanting to play, the secondary will be less than a shadow of its former self. I think Ray Lewis might be the greatest linebacker ever but at 35 years of age it’s unrealistic to think he could carry the defense on his back if things were to fall apart.

As for the offense the Ravens look to be one of the better groups in the entire league with a solid line, sound quarterback play, great running game and a solid receiving group. The question will be the development of Joe Flacco and whether or not he can overcome his penchant to underachieve in big games. I like Ray Rice to have a monster season and for the offensive line as a whole to finish the season as possibly the best unit in the league but I can’t see the Ravens offense being enough of a juggernaut to outweigh the holes in the defense.

Here’s my take on the Ravens schedule,

@New York Jets – L

@Cincinnati – L

Cleveland – W

@Pittsburgh – W

Denver – W

@New England – W

Buffalo – W

Miami – L

@Atlanta – W

@Carolina – W

Tampa Bay – W

Pittsburgh – L

@Houston – L

New Orleans – L

@Cleveland – W

Cincinnati - L

I like Baltimore to finish 9-7 with a 3-3 division record.

The suspension of Ben Roethlisberger has led some people to believe that the Steelers will tank the first four games of the season. Apologies to all the Pittsburgh rs out there but that’s not going to happen. Unfortunately for all the Steelers fans that think Pittsburgh is going to roll for 4 wins without Ben in the line-up, you can prepare yourself to be let down. The truth is the loss of Ben for the beginning quarter of the season will affect the team for the first 8 weeks. I do believe the Steelers can right the ship down the stretch but it will be a case of too little too late.

The biggest positive going into this season will be the defense returning to the same form that got them to their most recent Super bowl. Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu will be back in the line-up as well as Bryant McFadden and Larry Foote who will more than likely spell Lawrence Timmons in obvious running situations. These four players completely change the dynamic of Dick LeBeau’s defense from the form it was at the end of last season to an aggressive unit capable of forcing turnovers and stopping offenses cold.

That’s the good news.

Now it gets to be a mixed review. I like some of what has gone on in the off-season regarding the offense but I have some questions that I think will cause problems throughout the season. The first is the most obvious; can Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon lead this team to a winning record? Leftwich has proven that he can be an adequate starter in the league but anything over a .500 record would be considered overachieving. As for Dixon I’m less confident. The second question; is Rashard Mendenhall ready to take on the responsibility of a starting running back? There was a point in time where Rashard found his way into the doghouse with coach T over work ethic and preparation so time will tell if he has learned his lesson. The other concern with Mendenhall is ball security. The third; can Mike Wallace fill the shoes left by Santonio Holmes ? In a word, yes. I think Santonio was grossly ove - due to his Super bowl winning catch and Mike Wallace will take his spot without missing a beat. The offensive line will be an improved unit but I’m wondering how Flozell Adams will hold up once Ben returns and he is forced to sustain blocks for an exceptionally long period of time.

Here’s my take on the Steelers schedule,

Atlanta – L

@Tennessee – W

@Tampa Bay – W

Baltimore – L

Cleveland – W

@Miami – L

@New Orleans – L

@Cincinnati – L

New England – W

Oakland – W

@Buffalo – W

@Baltimore – W

Cincinnati – L

New York Jets – L

Carolina – W

@Cleveland - W

That puts the Steelers at 9-7 with a 3-3 division record tied with the Ravens.

This is where the anger from the fan in me starts to flow…

Cincinnati is still being slept on by a lot of fans around the league but when you look at the team they have built in the ‘Natti’ it’s difficult to picture them not making a serious run into the playoffs and possibly playing for a conference championship.

The defense is what most people don’t recognize and it could easily finish as a top 5 unit in 2010. Starting at the four up front the Bengals can get push up the field and stuff the run with tackles Domata Peko and Tank Johnson clogging the middle and Robert Geathers and Antwan Odom rushing the passer. At linebacker Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers are young talented players on the outside while veteran Dhani Jones eats up tackles in the middle. You see what Marvin has been working on right under your noses? He built up the interior to stop the run and put athletic rushers on the outside to get at the quarterback. The front 7 for the Bengals will be very tough to handle this season. The secondary is probably the best in the division with a pair of lockdown corners in Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph to go along with a mix of safties that when properly utilized can kill the run and cover over the top as well.

The offense last season was fueled by the breakout of Cedric Benson . No one predicted the often troubled running back to perform the way he did but the expectations are in place now so Benson must live up to them. Helping make things easier for him was the signing of Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant in the off-season. Basically that gives Carson Palmer three wide receivers that could be the #1 option on quite a few teams in the league. Add rookie Jermaine Gresham into the mix and you can see how the Bengals offense will be able to move the ball on most defenses in the league at will.

Here’s my take on the Bengals schedule,

@New England – L

Baltimore – W

@Carolina – W

@Cleveland – W

Tampa Bay – W

@Atlanta – W

Miami – W

Pittsburgh – W

@Indianapolis – L

Buffalo – W

@New York Jets – L

New Orleans – W

@Pittsburgh – W

Cleveland – W

San Diego – L

@Baltimore – W

That has the Bengals at 11-5 with a division sweeping record.

I know, I know, there’s no way the Bengals can sweep the division. Carson Palmer is overated. Terrell Owens will destroy the team and blah, blah…

The Bengals are the most talented team in the North with a golden opportunity to take the division title.

The Bengals will win the AFC North.

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Posted on: July 9, 2010 3:15 pm

Changing of the Guard - Part 3

For part 3 of this series there are 2 divisions that I consider the biggest wildcards in the entire league.

The NFC North is a division that is on the rise and in a couple seasons time could be the toughest in the entire league. What you usually find in a strong set of four is one team that is significantly weaker than the other. In this case it was always the Lions.

The drafting of Matt Stafford was a move that I had some problems with leading into April of 2009 and an argument could still be made that Detroit could have went a few different ways. It’s tough to argue with what Stafford has done since taking over the helm in the Motor City and moving forward the Lions are starting to gather the necessary pieces to become a contender in the North. Calvin Johnson is a freakish athlete with rare size, speed and power for a wide out. With the drafting of Jahvid Best the Lions now have some pieces in place for Stafford to continue to develop. The biggest hang-up for the offense is the 5 men up front. Without some changes to the offensive line the Lions will continue to struggle moving the ball consistently. The defense is slowly gaining power up front but the secondary still needs work before they can garner any respect. Detroit looks to be headed in the right direction but they will still finish last in the NFC North.

The Bears have brought in Mike Martz to run the offense so the question now is whether or not Jay Cutler can be effective in that system. Chicago has the right type of weapons around him to have success working it but it won’t be the greatest show on turf. In what is still a head-scratcher Devin Hester will be the #1 wide receiver. I always thought Hester could have been a very solid FS if given some time in the weight room, with blazing speed and a nose for the big play he could have aided an already aggressive defensive unit. However when your offense is in desperate need for playmakers sometimes you gamble and the move to Martz’s offense will be the determining factor to decide who wins the bet. Matt Forte should thrive in this offense and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rush for 1200 yards and receive for another 600. The defense in Chicago needs to stay healthy more than anything. With the addition of Julius Peppers the Bears should be able to apply pressure at will but Lovie Smith will need to be less conservative in the cover-2 and just turn the dogs loose. Brian Urlacher is hitting that point in a linebacker’s career where there will be great days, good days and days where he pulls a Houdini. Barring a season filled with nagging injuries he should thrive with a line in front of him that will free him up to roam the field from sideline to sideline. I like the Bears to be a better team this season but I have zero faith in Cutler and serious doubts about the age and injury status of the defense. The Bears will finish third in the NFC North.

Brett Favre is going to return, which puts Minnesota in contention for the division. Not because Brett alone makes them that much better of a team but if you look at what he was able to do last season with the weapons around him it’s hard for me to see a significant drop off in his numbers. With a bull for a running back in Adrian Peterson and an offensive line that can move the pile and buy time it’s the perfect place for Favre to thrive. Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin will continue to grow and become a lethal duo in the league for years to come. I like what the Vikings have done on offense but the defense has become a one trick pony which is the reason I can’t see them making a run to the Super bowl this season. Jared Allen will get his sacks and pressures while the Williams will clog up the middle but what about the linebackers and the secondary? The LBs are speedy and can roam but they along with the DBs behind them fail to come up with big plays. For a team that led the league in sacks (48) to have so few interceptions (11) shows an inability to create turnovers and since the turnover battle is one of the big fours when it comes to winning games it makes you wonder what the Vikings prospects will be if Peterson continues to fumble and Favre returns to forcing the ball. The Vikings will finish second in the NFC North.

Switching up defensive styles usually means a year of struggles on that side of the ball as a team learns the nuances of the new style. I guess nobody told Green Bay that as last season their defense made the conversion look easy. Ranking seventh overall in defense the Packers led the league in interceptions with 30. Having solid quarterback play with a good defense will win you a fair amount of games, having a great defense with great quarterback play will get you to the Super bowl and that is where the Packers look to be headed. Aaron Rogers threw 30 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions last season with a 103.2 rating, good enough to be fourth overall in TDs and rating. The ceiling is very high for Rogers and with a receiving group that is full of talent there’s no reason to believe he will struggle racking up points again this season. With an offensive line that will improve and a running back in Ryan Grant that found his place in the second half of last season the Packers are set to take the NFC North and make a deep run into the playoffs.

The Green Bay Packers will win the NFC North.

The NFC East has long been one of the most, if not the most, competitive divisions in the league. The only team I see with more than its fair share of questions is the Washington Redskins. Acquiring Donavan McNabb was a solid move, however there serious doubts surrounding the offensive line and an aging quarterback with some history of injuries. This might lend to more instability for a team that desperately needs a leader to help find its identity. The drafting in Washington has produced little and the offense has a lack of playmakers to show for it. Chris Cooley and Santana Moss are still the best weapons while Devin Thomas has under whelmed and Malcolm Kelly could be cut before the start of the season. With a stable of running backs that have a myriad of questions, Johnson’s a head case, Portis is fragile and Parker seems to have slowed and lost his greatest asset, the Redskins look no closer to gaining ground on the rest of the division. The defense has too many holes for Washington to make a move in the East and the transition to the 3-4 will likely stunt any chance for improvement. The Redskins will finish last in the NFC East.

If Brandon Jacobs could remain healthy for an entire season the Giants would have a real shot at moving up again in the East. Eli Manning is at his best when the run game is solid, his numbers when working play-action reflect that. Whenever he is forced into the position of standing at the line, making reads in obvious pass situations and ultimately leading the offense with his arm his numbers take a turn for the worse. That could change this season with the development of Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. I like Kevin Boss and would like to see the Giants increase his role in the offense. The defense will still be the bread winner in the end. It’s very easy to make a case for the Giants front four as the best in the league. Not only are they talented, but they are deep at every position. The linebackers need to overachieve and the secondary needs to find consistency for New York to move up. The Giants are one of those teams that could shock some people and could make a run for the division title but I have them finishing third in the NFC East.

Kevin Kolb has been handed the keys to the car, and even though McNabb had led Philadelphia to four NFC Championship games and one Super bowl Philly fans it seems couldn’t be happier. In my opinion they should be as the starting of Kolb increases the Eagles chances at winning the division. Call it a gut feeling, call it a hunch, but I’ve watched a ton of football and sometimes you can watch a player in just limited action and see that he has the ability to succeed. Kolb will run Andy Reid’s offense efficiently and with simplicity which is all it will take with the playmakers around him for the offense to put up some gaudy numbers. “Shady” McCoy will fill Brian Westbrook’s shoes in an offense that was tailor made for that style of back. DeSean Jackson is an e receiver and Kolb already has a report with Brett Celek so the pieces are in place to ease his transition to the starting role. I’m a big fan of what Leonard Weaver brings to the table and Jeremy Maclin has the ability to be more than just a solid receiver. Basically, the Eagles offense should be near the top of the league in yardage and points in 2010. As for the defense I like the signing of Ernie Sims to play along side Stewart Bradley and the Eagles secondary is filled with talent. I’m still not sure about the defensive line, if I were even with Kevin Kolb being a first time starter I would have seriously considered the Eagles as my pick to win the East, but I can’t put them higher than second.

I’m not a big Tony Romo fan. It’s not that I don’t believe he’s talented, he has solid intangibles. It’s not that I don’t think he’s a decent leader, the offense seems to feed off of him. There’s just something about the way he goes about his business on Sundays that just, I don’t know… Seriously, I don’t know. I watch the guy play and maybe it’s his mechanics, he has an odd delivery. Or it could be the way he handles adversity, he comes off like it’s no big deal to fall short. There’s just something about Romo that makes me think he will find a way to fail in the post-season.

Luckily for him he’s surrounded by a ton of talent that could overcome his ability to implode and keep the Cowoys ridin’ towards a division crown and a chance to finally make it to the Super bowl. Dallas could have the best trio of running backs in the league in Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. All three of these players have shined when given a chance to start. With a solid offensive line to lead the way along with Jason Witten, Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Dez Bryant and Patrick Crayton to keep defenses honest the ground game will excel. The defense is solid in the front seven with one of the better 3-4 defensive lines and a group of linebackers led by DeMarcus Ware that can get after the quarterback and stop the run. The defense will rely heavily on that as some holes in the secondary could be exposed if pressure is not applied. There’s room in the East for teams to move up or down but looking at it from a pre-season point of view I’m picking the Cowboys to win the East.

Just don’t remind me Tony Romo is the starting quarterback…

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Posted on: July 2, 2010 6:01 pm

Edited on: July 5, 2010 12:05 pm

Changing of the Guard - Part 2

When I started this series I felt as though I had locked down every king, but as the week rolled along I started to waffle a little on who I thought would take each division. After letting it rattle around I’m sticking with my gut.

The NFC South has long been a division with more parody than the entire league. It seemed every season that the team at the top of the heap would end up under the pile and the team looking up would find itself with no one else to look up to. This season however very little will change.

When a team is retooling itself there will be some pains. The Buccaneers have already had their share and if not for a Super bowl win in the 2000s the pain of it all might be too much to take. The upside is I like some of what the Bucs are up to and I can see this team being a contender in the future.

Just not this season.

Josh Freeman is a quarterback with a lot of upside and rookie wide receivers Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams make a solid group for the Bucs to build with in the passing game. The ground game is a bit of a mix with an offensive line that should be able to move the pile but with running backs that have serious questions which could lead to a slower development in Tampa Bay. The defense needs to make some strides but I just don’t see enough quality playmakers on that side of the ball for this unit to warrant much respect. Tampa is moving forward but this will be another season of baby steps.

The Panthers are a team that has a lot of talent and youth but is in the unfortunate situation of solving a problem at the head of the offense. Carolina is a run first team but they need a quarterback that can find a way to move the ball on third down without turning it over on a regular basis. The unsteady Jake Delhoume has left for Cleveland so the Panthers are hoping to find solid quarterback play from either rookie Jimmy Clausen or fourth year player Matt Moore who showed solid upside at the end of last season. The offense has few playmakers in the passing game with Steve Smith being the lone bright spot but with a bruising offensive line led by bookend tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah with 2 potent running backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart Carolina should be able to move the ball consistently. The defense will continue to be a solid unit with linebacker standout Jon Beason moving to the outside creating a huge opportunity to turn up the heat on opposing offenses. I look for Carolina to find it’s identity on offense early and make a push to take the number 2 spot.

Matt Ryan has proven to be the franchise quarterback the Falcons were looking for. Now if Michael Turner can return to the form that he broke into his first season in Atlanta the sky could be the limit for an offense that has plenty of playmakers. Roddy White has quietly become one of the most consistent wide receivers in the game and will look to add to his 2009 totals, 85 receptions – 1183 yards – 11 TDs. That was his third straight season of more than 80 receptions and 1100 yards while he increased his touchdown total each year. White is set to have a monster season and Atlanta fans should be stoked at the prospect of what lies ahead in Roddy’s career. Unfortunately the defense in Atlanta still needs to form a bond and mature before the Falcons can take the division title. Without a solid pass rushing threat at linebacker and a secondary that’s sketchy the Falcons will have to rack up a ton of points every week to stay in contention.

Putting points on the board is not a problem for the Saints. Drew Brees is easily one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the league and in my opinion he is number 1. With solid leadership, good pre-snap reads, correct audibles and adjustments, poise, touch, accuracy and good arm strength it’s tough to point out flaws in his game. Of course with the weapons he has around him it’s easy to see why 2010 should be another season long Mardi Gras for Drew. Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are all names you will hear on fantasy draft day and for good reason. They can all find the end zone and Brees is great at showing them the way. With an offensive line that can buy him some time I’m hard pressed to come up with a reason to doubt the Saints will continue to light up the scoreboard. The defense was the big surprise last season with Darren Sharper announcing their arrival with 9 picks, 3 of those for touchdowns. Gregg Williams was the conductor of the turn around for the Saints defense and if not for coach Sean Payton pushing for, and ultimately taking a pay cut to get Williams the Saints might have never made the run to the Super bowl. With players like Jonathan Vilma, Sedrick Ellis and Will Smith the Saints can get after opposing quarterbacks and stop the run. Balance is the biggest asset to a winning team and New Orleans will only become stronger as the defense strengthens and matures while the offense thrives.

The New Orleans Saints will win the NFC South.

This next diagnosis is one of those moments where some of you might think I had some off-season minor surgery to clear up my headaches, or maybe it was a botched lobotomy.

The AFC East has long been reined over by the Patriots. Last season the Jets decided to overthrow the king and all of the Patriot rs went out and bought a Sanchize t-shirt to wear while they watched illegal sideline footage of Mark eating a hot dog. However the Pats found a way to retain the crown and in the process showed that the changing of the guard can sometimes prove to be very difficult.

What’s not difficult for the Bills is to find a way to remain at the bottom of the East. The one thing I do like is the apparent focus on the ground game with the drafting of C.J. Spiller following the acquisition of Eric Wood last spring. There is a ton of work to still be done on the offensive line and there is an obvious lack of playmakers but it’s a positive sign that the Bills at least know what they want their identity to be on that side of the ball. The defense is a unit that has plenty of talent but is stuck on the field for most of the game. If Buffalo can ever find a way to move the ball with a little consistency the defense should be strong enough to steal a couple of wins and eventually find their way to 500. The problem for the Bills is that they are slowly crawling forward in a division with one established powerhouse and 2 teams that are building very quickly.

The recipe for winning in New England has changed over the years. Lately the focus has been on Tom Brady and the air attack, but the fun stopped just short of a perfect season. It seems as though everyone has forgot about the secret ingredient that filled the bowl with trophies, defense. At least it seems that coach Belichick has with the way the roster has slowly eroded on that side of the ball. The departure of Richard Seymour should not be downplayed going into this season along with several questions at linebacker and secondary. Bunta-Cain was the only defender to post over 5 sacks on a team that once applied pressure at will. Brandon Meriweather is a young safety that will be a stud for years to come but the rest of the group lacks true consistent playmakers. This lays the team entirely at the feet of Tom Brady who's numbers last season returned to the average that he had prior to setting the world on fire in 2007. It could be that the ground game in New England became steady last season with a mix of backs, but I believe it's attributed to defenses adjusting to the Patriots style of offense forcing them to run the ball more. This is a turning point for the Patriots that some don't believe is coming. The trick of it is they could finish with a 9-7 record and miss the playoffs, which is where I have them. New England will finish third in the division.

The Jets defense will end up being at or near the top in almost every statistical category. With star Darrel Revis and the addition of Cromartie at cornerback this gives them possibly the best CB duo in the league. With solid safeties to back them up it will be difficult to throw on New York. The linebackers excel at getting after the quarterback and the defensive line eats up blockers with ease. Throw into the recipe Rex Ryan’s ability to dial up the correct pressure at the right moment and the potential for the Jets defense is unlimited. For the offense I’m not a big fan of Sanchez. I see holes in his game and seeing how his only solid target is tight end Dustin Keller I see Mark having a huge letdown in his second season. Luckily for Jets’ fans though the ground game should excel. Tony Richardson is one of the better run blockers in the last decade and he gets the luxury of leading the way for a young workhorse in Shonn Greene and a future hall-of-fame legend in LaDainian Tomlinson. His already envious job is made even easier by an offensive line that is tooled towards the run. Nick Mangold is one of the premier centers in the league while Ferguson and Woody lock up either side. New York will be very tough this season but with the big plays on offense more than likely coming from the running backs a 10-6 record with some losses in the division opens up the door for the team I look to sneak up on people.

Go ahead, start complaining…

Have you ever been to Miami? I never have but I’ve heard great things...

Yeah, I'm picking the Dolphins to with the AFC East. Before you panic hear me out...

With a sweep of the Jets and splits with the Patriots and Bills the Dolphins tied the Pats for the best division record in the AFC East last season. This is a team on the rise that had zero big play talent at wide receiver. Enter the sometimes abrasive Brandon Marshall who immediately fills the Phins greatest weakness on offense. With a one-two punch of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams at running back to go along with an offensive line that mauls in the run game Miami will look to pound the rock and run play-action in the style of Bill Parcells. This will give Chad Henne the opportunity to grow into the offense and he has the tools necessary to keep the ball moving down the field. If they can click I see a team that can eat up the clock on offense keeping an aggressive defense fresh. With a strong set of safeties and young cornerbacks in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith that will grow in their second season the Dolphins have a chance to create pressure and force turnovers via a front 7 that gets at the quarterback (ranked #3 in 2009 with 44 sacks).

Now keep in mind I'm not saying the Dolphins will run away with the East, I'm not saying the Patriots are finished. What I'm saying is I believe the Dolphins are set to turn a corner in a division that will have a window open for a team to finally give the champ a punch in the snot-box. Of all the divisions in the NFL the AFC East will prove to be the most competitive and there will be some great ball games played between rivals. The schedule is difficult this season but it favors Miami down the stretch.

The Miami Dolphins will win the AFC East.

Category: NFL

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Posted on: June 24, 2010 3:59 pm

Edited on: June 25, 2010 2:34 pm

Changing of the Guard - Part 1

It seems that every season a couple of teams are still at the top of their divisions when it comes to preseason rankings. Some of these teams are still on top this year but a few look to be losing ground to franchises that have set themselves up to turn the corner.

I thought I'd take a minute to go over a few changes that I see happening this season, but first I'll hand out division titles to the teams that have been at or near the top for awhile that will be there again at the end of this season.

The Colts would be the first team that comes to mind. Peyton Manning has the luxury of working in the same offensive system with the same type of personnel again this season. If you look back at the WRs Manning has worked with it almost seems as if they have a mold hidden somewhere in Indianapolis and every other season or so they break it out and create a Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne duplicate that can just step in and contribute immediately with no drop off in offensive production. Even with a change at head coach the Colts continued to rack up yardage and points while remaining stingy enough on defense to make it to the big show.

Looking at the rest of the division it's hard for me to think the Colts will struggle much this season. The Titans are poised for a Titanic style meltdown with a QB that is facing disciplinary action from the league and possibly law enforcement and assuring that his development will be set back for another season. Star running back Chris Johnson is unhappy with his contract and most likely will hold out until he gets what he wants while the WR with the most upside, Kenny Britt, doesn't understand what it takes to be a starter in the NFL. Combine that with an underachieving defense and the problems in Tennessee are larger than the possibility of a playoff run.

The Jaguars will be second from the bottom in the South with an offense that is forced to rely on one player, Maurice Jones-Drew, in order to be consistent. The defense continues to disappoint under a head coach that is supposed to be a defensive mind. The Texans are the one team that could push the Colts for a division title but with a defense that still hasn't found it's identity and a starting QB that has problems remaining healthy the odds on Houston unseating the Colts get longer and longer.

The only other team that I have retaining their division crown is the Chargers, and to be honest I do so with a great deal of hesitation. Philip Rivers might be without his best offensive weapon in Vincent Jackson for 10 weeks making Malcolm Floyd his number one option. With a superstar TE that can't stay healthy, a rookie RB that's starting and a defense that is losing pop and aggression under Norv Turner the Chargers will still have their hands full in a division of misfits that are trying to step it up.

The Chiefs will finish last in the AFC West. Matt Cassel should see a spike in offensive production under the teaching of new offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss, and the offense as a whole should improve in the second season with Todd Haley. However the defense is still at a lack for playmakers in a division with some breakout offensive talent. I do believe moving into the future the Chiefs will have the opportunity to make a serious run with the young talent that they have in place but with Eric Berry being a rookie and probably the best player on a defense full of no names and retirees it will take some movement on that side of the ball to become a serious contender.

The Broncos are a bit of an enigma going into 2010. With an opportunity to draft some needed position players second year coach Josh McDaniels drafted Tim Tebow to add to a roster that had recently traded for Brady Quinn to compete with Kyle Orton. Unless McDaniels is planning on running a hybrid of the wildcat with 3 QBs in the backfield it's a real possibility that he whiffed in the draft. There's some decent talent on the defense but the offense looks to be taking a stutter step forward losing it's best option in the passing game and having no proven commodity at RB. I have the Broncos finishing third in the division.

That brings me to the Raiders and what I believe to be a team that has more upside combined with a ton of baggage than any other team in the league. Oakland took a huge step forward by releasing Jamarcus Russel and adding Jason Campbell to the roster. This gives them stability at the QB position and an opportunity to find an identity on offense. With a one-two punch at RB with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush combined with a quality TE in Zach Miller all the Raiders need to do to be consistent is find a way to run the ball and work play-action effectively. The defense has enough quality players to be steady and if they can merge to play at a high level Oakland could sneak up on teams and steal enough wins to be 8-8 which could be enough to push San Diego for a playoff spot in a weak division.
Now let's get to some changes at the top.

The NFC West is looking to be shook up this season with the Cardinals losing Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Coach Ken Wisenhunt will be forced to earn his pay while he finds ways to overcome the holes in the game of his new starting QB, Matt Leinart. Leinart's arm strength, or lack of, will be the first hurdle, his inability to make pre-snap reads the second and his questionable leadership the third. Losing Warner is the brick that brings the wall tumbling down. On a team that was reliant on offense to win in tight games it will now be an unproven QB who will be forced to lead the charge. The Cardinals are still talented enough to finish second in the division but the glory days will be gone for at least this season.

The Rams are rebuilding with a rookie QB that has suffered two shoulder injuries in college, to the same shoulder. It's unsettling that a team that has had it's season stole from them on more than one occasion over the past couple of seasons due to an injured starting QB would look to rebuild by bringing in a rookie QB with health concerns. Steven Jackson is still a very capable runner but the offensive line is still weak and with a rookie at QB Jackson's workload will still be high, not good news for Steven who at this point in his career would be better served by a few less carries. With Donnie Avery as the number 1 WR it's tough to see the offense scoring many points this season. I do like the Rams defense moving forward and I would have been really excited for this unit if draft day had gone a little different.

The Seahawks have made moderate strides the past 2 seasons but what intrigues me the most is how quickly they fell and stayed there after the loss to the Steelers in the Super bowl. Going into this season the Hawks have just enough on offense to keep themselves in the upper 16 of the league in yardage and scoring but there are glaring holes on defense that could lead to a quick demise. I could easily see Seattle falling to the bottom but for right now I'm going to keep them at third in the division.

And now we'll look at the 2010 NFC West division winning San Francisco 49ers. It's tough to name a division winner with Alex Smith as the starter but the second year in the same offensive system with the talent that he has around him lends the opportunity to keep it simple, limit mistakes and play pressure free. Frank Gore, Glenn Coffee, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree will make the game slow down some for Smith and by the middle of the season I look for this offense to be the cream of the division. The defense will be the straw that stirs the drink and you better believe that a Mike Singletary coached team will come hungry and aggressive every week. The 49ers easily have the best defense in this division and with offenses that have lots of question marks that will be all they really need to take the crown.

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Posted on: April 14, 2010 4:13 pm

Walk Softly

Walk softly, knowing you carry the biggest stick.

Whichever metaphor you want to put to the phrase or however your mind wraps around the concept understand this.

The short little Irish Catholic man that runs the Steelers has no problems with letting it dangle, he just doesn't talk about it.

There's no denying that the trade of Santonio Holmes was a non-verbal, non-physical slap upside the head of the Steelers' locker room. If the Jets had not offered up a 5th round pick for 'Smokey' Holmes he would have been cut, plain and simple.

The message is an easy read. It's time to start doing things the Rooney way or you will all be finding new homes.

It's about damn time IMO.

I've listened to some people spout off about how a 5th round pick was inadequate compared to Santonio's value, and it's hard to disagree. However if you put it in the context of zero return or little return it makes a great deal of difference. If Holmes was released he could of signed anywhere with no return on the Steelers investment of drafting, training, educating and preparing Santonio to be a NFL caliber receiver. A fifth round pick is a decent return on a player that you would have otherwised gained nothing from in releasing. Remember, the Jets will be without Homes for the first 4 games of the season so a higher draft pick would have been out of the question. Add to this the proximity to the draft and how little time there was for negotiating and the Steelers made out very well for a player they wanted rid of.

I agree with the trade 100%.

The question now will be whether or not the rest of the club understands the message.

With a quarterback that is as dumb as he is gifted the clock is ticking on his tenure in the 'Burgh'. If Ben Roethlisberger doesn't keep his nose out of the 'pile' there won't be anyone left to wash his face.

In Ben's first podium speech pleading his innocence in a sexual assault incident, yeah there's more than one, Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin stood by his side in a show of support. This time he stood all alone.

That shows exactly what the front office and coaching staff think of Ben's behavior.

Tick, Tick, Tick...

I find it hard to believe that Mr. Rooney won't suspend Ben for a minimum of 2 games. 4 is the number that comes to mind, but will Roethlisberger continue to behave in a juvenile manor? IMO it's only a matter of time until he strays from the straight and narrow and finds himself on a bus out of town. Believe it or not there is a possibility of Ben being moved on draft day, it's been reported (Ed Bouchette 1250AM) that the Rooney's, after hearing the Georgia D.A.'s press conference, are so disgusted that the talk of moving Ben began immediately after.

So what if Ben was to be traded? Would you have a problem with it? If he came to your favorite team, would you cheer for him?

I guess Ben should have looked the history of the Steelers over a little better.

Maybe he could have kept his stick from dangling in public, then he wouldn't have to talk at all.

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Posted on: March 30, 2010 1:43 pm

Being Prepared

This isn't about right or wrong, it's not my place to judge before the facts are known.

This isn't about jumping the gun, I have yet to hit the panic switch.

This isn't about saving face, the Steelers have as solid a record as any other team in the league when it comes to handling player issues.

This is about being prepared to win, period.

In the aftermath of Ben Roethlisberger's recent off the field conduct it makes me wonder as a Steelers' fan whether or not the Rooney's have looked into the possibility of moving forward without their franchise quarterback. If not, it's high time they did or else the consequences could be dire.

If Ben were to be charged Roger "the Hammer" Goodell would suspend him immediately. He's the face of the Steelers and a high profile player in the NFL. The Rooney's would be hard pressed not to take disciplinary action of their own and the Pittsburgh fan base would scream for his blood, or at least for his immediate release. The fans in Western PA are very passionate about the team and would rather suffer without Ben than have to cheer for him on Sundays.

This creates a huge problem in that the Steelers have no viable replacement for Ben on the roster and seemingly no interest in finding on this off-season.

Charlie Batch was resigned to a 2 year deal that if he was forced to start though I could only hope that he made it halfway in each healthy. He's aged and brittle which is a horrible combination. There was a point in time where Charlie coming onto the field meant the chances of winning were still solid. He has a great understanding of the offense but the scheme that Arians has implemented would require him to win by using his arm the entire game, something that Charlie cannot do.

That leads me to Dennis Dixon and the same dilemma. Regardless of what some fans want to believe Dixon will not be a starter in the NFL due to his throwing ability. He had some decent passing numbers in college but it was attributed to him being able to take off on opposing defenses with his awesome running ability. This kept the defense honest enough for him to get some wide open looks and be able to complete the ball with some ease.

Now before anyone jumps on the Ravens game from last season let's take an honest look at it.

The big pass plays he had were off of play-action and the first one that he completed was almost under thrown to the point that the play was dead. In the end Dennis threw the pass that cost the Steelers the game. He was a possible Heisman candidate because of his legs which is why the Steelers should have been using him in a slash role from day one. In the end he will be considered a waste of a draft choice not because he doesn't have talent but because of the Steelers reluctance to utilize his abilities since his acquisition.

As of yet I have not heard any interest from Kevin Colbert in trying to draft a developmental quarterback in the later rounds. After signing no free agent with any youth combined with at least limited starting experience the writing is on the wall. The Steelers are going to ride this thing out with Ben and hope for the best.

I'd feel a heck of a lot better if they prepared for the worst.

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Posted on: November 6, 2009 10:07 pm

State of the Union - AFC South

Some things seem to never change, and in the AFC South that means the Colts win the division.

After last season when the Titans came out of nowhere to try and change everyone's assumptions about the South it looks more and more like our collective perceptions are the reality.

In other words some things will never change.

At this point last season Tennessee's defense was playing out of their minds and the rushing duo of 'Smash-n-Dash' couldn't be contained. Cut to 2009 and the Titans defense has sunk like the Titanic. At least 'Dash' is still slashing his way through defenses, Lendale seems to be running on 7 of 8 cylinders. 'Smash' well, maybe he should be stashed.

All is right in the South again.

The Colts are as potent as the throwing arm they are lead by and have put together a 7-0 record. The defense has only given up 91 points and this has been achieved without their second best defensive player in Bob Sanders being available. Even with Dwight Freeney not being 100% for the bulk of the season Indy is 5th in sacks and 7th in yards allowed.

The offense is still a juggernaut in the league and the stats agree. The Colts are 8th in points, 7th in yards and Peyton has thrown a total of 4 interceptions with a 109.3 rating. They have top 10 rushing touchdown numbers eventhough they don't break the top 10 in rushing yards but heck, nobody's perfect, right?

It will be hard to unseat the Colts as the season goes on. There are still a couple of teams with a shot though.

The Texans started off the season with highs and lows, but with a 5-3 record it looks as though they are starting to find their stride.

The offense has arguably the most talented weapon at wide receiver in the league in Andre Johnson. With a healthy Matt Schaub (as I type this I cross my fingers) the Texans have a shot to put solid points on the board every week. The only hiccup has been the fumbling of Steve Slaton but if Ryan Moats' performance last week is any indication of what's to come Houston has no worries. The loss of Owen Daniels is bigger than a lot of people might think and it could be the only achilles' heel in an offense that otherwise appears to have a balance of strength all around.

The defense is a tough read. Everytime I'm convinced that they've turned the corner and are ready to crack the top 10 for the entire season they let a struggling team score at will. They have some young studs in DeMeco Ryans, Mario Williams and Brian Cushing to go along with a bunch of other talented youth. In the long run Houston's drafting on the defensive side of the ball is going to pay back big dividends.

If the Texans get hot they could make a run and push for the top spot.

The Jaguars need to run Maurice Jones-Drew a little more, and by a little more I mean every opportunity they have to hand their best offensive weapon the ball they need to do so. Mike Sims-Walker was a little known commodity at the beginning of the season that quietly started to become a threat. Then the silence was broken when he got suspended for one game to do a little tail chasin'. He is easily Garrard's best weapon.

The defense is supposed to be the straw that stirs the drink. Jack Del Rio has done little to get this unit on track. Jacksonville is 24th in points but somehow 11th in yardage. It could be that they are dead last in the league in sacks, meaning they are dead last in the league at pressuring the quarterback. If there were ever a time for making a case to fire the head coach, now would be that time.

At 3-4 the Jaguars are on the far outside looking in. Maybe the time has come to make some changes.

That brings us to the Titans.

The same titans that rolled to a division crowining 13-3 season stand at 1-6.

Could it be possible that not resigning Albert Haynesworth has had this much of an impact on Tennessee?

The Titans defense is 31st in points against after ranking 2nd last season. Last season they were 7th in yards against. This season they're 28th. Tennessee's success under Jeff Fisher has always been fueled by the defense. At this point it's safe to say they are running on empty.

The offense last season was predicated on ball control by running the rock down everybody's throat. They kept the clock running and the defense fresh. They kept it third and short and had a high conversion percentage. Kerry Collins last season played like he didn't know who he was. I guess this season he remembered and threw the ball everywhere but where it needed to be and finally flung himself on the bench. Vince Young stepped in and earned the win and eventough I believe he has the competitive nature to be a winner I don't see the qualities needed to be a solid starter. I like to watch him play but I don't think he is the answer.

The ground game is still eating up turf, only this season it's in spurts. Chris Johnson has gained the bulk of his yardage in a couple of games and after ripping of a couple huge gains against some softer rushing defenses his YPC average is misleading. Last year LenDale White cranked up the motor and blasted his way into the endzone 15 times. This season he has 1. In the offseason he started a self imposed 'tequila' diet to improve his performance. If I'm a Titans fan I'm buying a case of Patron and heading over to White's house so we can drink away our sorrows in hopes of him returning to last years form.

Maybe he is hitting on all 8 cylinders, he's just not running on high octane anymore.

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Posted on: October 9, 2009 9:14 pm

Edited on: October 9, 2009 10:06 pm

State of the Union - AFC West

I just can't believe it. I mean seriously, at the start of the season you always expect a few surprises but seriously, I mean, really?

The Denver Broncos are 4-0.
I repeat, the Denver Broncos are 4-0!

How? Well there doing it by turning last year's weakness into this season's strength. That's right, the defense in Denver is their reason for success.

The Broncos have 15 sacks on the season which ranks them at #2. Elvis Dumervil is a decent defensive end reborn as a pro-bowl linebacker accounting for 8 of Denver's sacks. at this pace he would finish the season with around 25.

The offense has been a big surprise as well. Kyle Orton got bashed by most of the posters on this site and was written off as mediocre at best. Five touchdowns and zero picks later it looks like Orton might be more than workman-like. His yardage, yards for completions and completion percentage might all be less than stellar but a 97 passer rating proves efficiency.

The ground game has been efective as well with a team average of 4.7 yards a carry. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter have rushed for a combined 516 yards givng the team an average of 103 yards a game. If you can run the ball, play defense and not commit turnovers you can win ball games in the NFL.

The receiving group has come together to start making noise, and not the kind that Brandon Marshall was causing in the off-season. The little love bug scene him and Josh McDaniels shared shows that winning cures all that ails.

And for the record, at the start of the season Josh McDaniels looked like a man in over his head, at least in my opinion. Looking at it now could he have actually known what he was doing all along? There's still a lot of season left, I'll wait to give my verdict.

So what about the Chargers?

In the offseason I pegged San Diego for an 8-8 season losing the division to Oakland (this was when the option for Garcia to start was still available) by virtue of divisional record. After a 2-2 start their on there way to making me look intelligent, if you overlook that whole Oakland thing.

Philip Rivers continues to light it up with 1245 yds, 6 tds and 3 ints over 4 games. He has earned his place in the discussion of the top quarterbacks in the league and could be considered a top 5 passer. The next step for Rivers is the same as the entire Chargers organization. Win the AFC Championship and make it to the Superbowl. If San Diego can accomplish this than Rivers will claim his spot permanently.

The ground game in San Diego has become a weakness and it has been working that direction ever since the decision not to resign Lorenzo Neal. The man that might have been the biggest factor in Ladanian Tomlinson making it to the second level of the defense was let go and L.T.'s numbers have spiraled downward. It's looking like the Chargers once formidable rushing attack could now be their achilles heel averaging a pitiful 2.7 yds a carry. If San Diego can't improve this statistic the season is doomed.

The recieving group has played well and Vincent Jackson is becoming a severe threat to opposing defenses. Averaging 18.7 yds a reception with 373 yds and 2 tds Jackson is the main weapon in Philip Rivers arsenal. Throw in Antonio Gates 349 yds and 2 tds and you can see why Rivers has become a big success.

The defense however has been mediocre at best. Six sacks will not cut it if San Diego wants to win the West. Ranking at #24 the Chargers defense is 3rd in the division, behind the Raiders, and could be moving down if the ground game continues to peter out leaving the defense on the field all game.

I wish I could say some nice things about Oakland and Kansas City but there's not a lot to say.

Oakland will not win many games with JaMarcus Russell controlling the offense. Completing less than 40% of his passes with a 42 rating Jamarcus has thrown for 506 yds, 1 td and 4 picks. That's about 125 yds a game. He is the worst starting QB in the league.

That's all I will discuss about the Raiders.

For the lowly Chiefs it has been one loss followed by another, followed by another, followed by another and one of those losses came at the hands of the Raiders. I knew the Chiefs would struggle, but I am still surprised by how they look incapbale of producing a steady attack. The one thing I know for sure is Todd Haley will lose this team if he continues to act like a child on the sidelines. The prognosis is slow dying, followed by a slow death, followed by...

If the Broncos beat the Patriots this weekend I might have to check my pulse or watch a few episodes of the Twilight Zone.
Did you ever see the episode where Shatner is on the plane sweatin' bullets? Classic!

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